AGR's HIGH-PRESS: Could York's U-21 minutes tank end-of-season playoff push?
Once again, it was a weekend for must-win matches and six-point games across the CPL, as the title race continued heating up.
And, once again, that pressure led to the table somehow ending up even tighter than the previous week. After just six points separated first and sixth-place last week, that number is now down to five, thanks to some key results from across the league. Crucial wins by in-form teams such as Atlético Ottawa and the Halifax Wanderers, to a return to form from a quietly-hot Forge FC, along with a much-needed win from Pacific FC, meant that fuel was added to the fire in this competitive title race over Matchweek 16.
It wasn’t all sunshine and roses, though. A tough stretch continued for both Vancouver FC and Valour FC, who will now face off in a season-defining game this weekend. Meanwhile, York United continued their tumble down the table.
That’s the beauty of this time of year; for those at the top, this is the time to hold steady, while those at the bottom will turn to desperation... which, in turns, leads to some entertaining matches. That was certainly the case this week, making for an intriguing edition of HIGH-PRESS.
Time to panic, York United?
Just weeks ago, it felt like York United were cruising in CanPL.
Having done well to string together a few wins, the Nine Stripes were very much in the thick of the title race, sitting near the top of the table – and, to be fair, they still remain very much in the hunt right now, sitting just five points off first place as of writing.
At the same time, it's hard to say things are peachy with York right now, either. Thanks to a loss to Halifax over this past weekend, they've got a record of 2W-2D-4L (8 points) in their last eight games... which is less than ideal. Plus, teams ahead of them in the standings haven't been dropping quite as many points of late.
As a result, they’ve now slipped to sixth in the table. Not only that, but they’ve played one more game than everyone in front of them except Forge FC, too. That'll make any climb back up the table that much more difficult.
Here is the updated Canadian Premier League table after this past weekend's matches 📊 pic.twitter.com/U3Mq3SrcEm
— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) July 31, 2023
It all leads to the all-important question: Is it time to worry about York United?
Based on their last eight games, the answer is clear - absolutely. During this stretch, York have only scored seven goals and conceded 13, as they've taken a step back at both ends of the pitch. As a result, they’ve got the lowest goals for and highest goals against of the top six teams in CanPL right now.
Not only that, but it’s hard to say they’ve been unlucky as of late, either. Earlier in the season, they suffered from massive underperformance issues offensively, but they made up for it with some solid defending. Right now, even that’s gone away, as they sit sixth in xG for, and seventh in xG against. Their chance generation has slowed down, and they just haven’t been able to find any solidity defensively.
That explains their recent slide, but there is another issue that has dogged York all season long – player availability. Across their roster, they’ve been unable to keep a healthy and available starting XI for long, as injuries and suspensions have hit them hard.
RED CARD 🟥@yorkutdfc are down to 10 men as Matthew Baldisimo is shown a straight red for a poor challenge on João Morelli. #CanPL | 🔴 https://t.co/7JFAUhgjL6 pic.twitter.com/jLPQ5SEsy0
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 30, 2023
Consider this: Every team in CanPL has had at least six outfield players who have cleared 1,000 minutes this season, with some teams boasting as many as eight or nine such players.
But York United? They’ve got just three players right now (Paris Gee, Brem Soumaoro and Max Ferrari), showing how much they’ve struggled to get talent on the field with regularity, making it hard for them to build chemistry and find that best XI. Key players like Mo Babouli, Tass Mourdoukoutas and Jérémy-Gagnon-Laparé, among others, have featured irregularly, which itself is a worry. Of course, some of that’s been out of the team's control, but it’s still a factor that has continued to hurt them, dating back to 2022.
Speaking of minutes, that leads to the last big worry for York: U-21 requirements. The Nine Stripes are lagging behind the pack in that regard.
With each team needing to get to 2,000 minutes for U-21 Canadian players in order to be eligible for the playoffs (with up to 1,000 of those being able to be provided by players on loan), York United currently sit 1,450 minutes short with 10 games remaining. They’ll need to average 145 U-21 minutes per game going forward to reach that 2000-minute milestone.
That’s a huge worry, especially in the context of their recent slide. Earlier in the season, it was understandable why they might’ve been hesitant to hand out U-21 minutes, as they were winning and playing well. Now? This requirement will force lineup decisions that York might not ideally want to make.
While yes, York United have undoubtedly had some bad luck, having seen a couple of their best U-21 options suffer injuries, they’ve certainly had time to integrate some youngsters as the season has gone along. But this lagging trail coupled with their recent slump in form has made for a particularly tricky situation for head coach Martin Nash to now try and solve.
If he can;t, this could be another missed playoffs for York United... even if they do finish in the top five.
Pacific backline returns to form, just in time
Bad news for those in the title hunt: Pacific FC just snapped a five-game winless run this past weekend, defeating Valour FC 3-0 in a commanding performance. The race to the regular season title will not be easy.
Sure, it’s worth noting that Valour FC isn't exactly in the greatest form these days either, now sitting on a five-game winless run of their own... but they’re still usually good at home, making Pacific’s dominance at IG Field surprising to see.
Yet, it’s hard to say that this wasn’t coming for Pacific.
Even despite their recent slump, the Tridents had put in some positive performances, especially offensively. Really, the big factor that had hurt them was defensively, as they had looked far sloppier on that side of the pitch of late, conceding eight goals across that five-game stretch. For context, Pacific only conceded nine goals in the 12 games they’d played before that run this season.
So, the biggest takeaway about this Valour result wasn't the three-goal outburst (Pacific’s fourth of the season but first since June 2nd, btw). Instead, it was the fact that they kept a clean sheet, limiting Valour to just 0.39 xG in the process.
GOAL🔱🔱
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 29, 2023
Are you kidding me Josh Heard!? The wonder-strike puts @PacificFCCPL 2-0 up over @ValourFootball
🔴 Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/8IHlmQ0D6F
The goals were always going to start flowing again – there’s a reason why Pacific sits first in xG with 28.39, nearly four xG ahead of second-place Forge. Defensively, however, they’d slipped a bit, as Forge and Ottawa had passed them in recent weeks. Now, Pacific leads the league in fewest Goals Against with 17 and are second in xG against with 17.15.
Therefore, look for James Merriman's side to keep building on their backline resiliency as the weeks roll on. In recent games, they’d gotten a bit sloppy in transition, and they weren’t managing the ball as well, leading to some of those defensive issues. Against Valour? No such issues.
Lastly, one other thing Pacific will be pleased with is the fact that they nabbed another road win, as they're now averaging two points per game away from home (14 points in seven). Considering they’ve now got seven of their last 11 points on the road, they’ll look to keep up that strong travelling form as they try for the regular season title.
Another key milestone ticked for Halifax
Speaking of winning on the road, it was a big away weekend for the Halifax Wanderers, as they picked up their first road win of the season in a 2-0 victory over York United.
After going winless in their first nine attempts, this one was a long time coming, but certainly one that Halifax had been working hard for, putting up strong showings but struggling to see the result over the line. But in this one? From the first minute, Halifax were on the front foot, doing well to slowly break down York, who were only really able to get joy in transition.
The result? Former Vaughan coach Patrice Gheisar celebrated his first away victory back in the familiar confines of York Lions Stadium.
Yet, that’s been the 'Halifax way' this season: Play their style of soccer, and play it unapologetically. No matter where, or against who, they’ve got a clear tactical identity, building out in a three, trying to get Lorenzo Callegari on the ball in pockets and then springing the ball forward into the channels.
Halifax are an absolute joy to watch right now.#CanPL
— Oliver Platt (@plattoli) July 30, 2023
The more they’ve done that, the better they’ve gotten at it. That’s why they've won six of their last nine games after going winless in their first eight, and it's also why they've been ticking off some key milestones along the way.
Halifax sit fourth as the playoff race heats up, with seven of their next 11 games at home, a place where they’ve been dominant with five straight wins. A push for the title isn't unreasonable, given that they now sit just four points off first place. A clash with first-place Pacific looms ahead this weekend, and a result there would open everything up. No pressure!
Oh. Did I mention that João Morelli scored his first goal this weekend? Or that Doneil Henry is slowly integrating into the squad? How about Halifax’s xG for pushing up to third in CanPL, and xG against to fourth?
Really, the only thing to watch out for with these Wanderers right now is U-21 minutes, as they need to average just under 100 of them per game the rest of the way... but based on how they’ve risen to challenges this year, you’d expect them to tackle that with ease right now, too.
Player of the Week: Kunle Dada-Luke![Pacific 4207 (1)]()
He might not be getting as involved in the final third as much as he did last year, but Kunle Dada-Luke has made some huge strides defensively, really emerging as a reliable rock at right back for Pacific this year.
But against Valour, he got to show the best of both worlds, as he waselectric going forward, nabbing an assist and creating a few good opportunities, while continuing to be reliable defensively, helping them grab a crucial win.
Because of that, he stands out as player of the week, serving as a reminder of the importance of consistent defenders, as he shone at a critical time for his team.
Goal of the Week: Zachary Fernandez
Speaking of reliable full backs, Fernandez had a moment to shine for Halifax this weekend, as he scored the winner in their big victory over York.
His third of the season, it was one to remember, too, as he scored from way downtown after a nice corner routine from Halifax.
Doing well to put everything behind the strike, it made for a nearly unstoppable effort, unfortunately for York, who could do nothing but watch the ball hit the post and go in for an easy goal-of-the-week winner.
#CanPL BANGERS ONLY ⚓️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 30, 2023
Zachary Fernandez scores an absolute ROCKET!😍@HFXWanderersFC take the lead late in the half against @yorkutdfc
🔴 Watch LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/qgnHrNzJl4
You gotta see this: João Morelli is BACK
The 2021 CPL MVP and Golden Boot winner, it was expected that João Morelli was going to have an excellent 2022 season for Halifax. And when he scored in their opening match away to York, he seemed well on track to doing so.
But then, he suffered a major knee injury, one that ended up keeping him out of action for nearly 17 months.
Now, however, he’s back, after a long rehab process, one that weighed heavily on him.
So it was fitting to see him score his first goal back this weekend, against the same York team at the same stadium where he scored his last goal. Given that he mentioned after the game there were moments where he thought it’d be where he’d scored his last-ever goal, it was a nice full-circle moment for him, one that certainly meant a lot to him based on his celebration and post-game reaction.
One can only imagine there are many more on the way, now, as he returns to his usual goalscoring form for these high-flying Wanderers, who will look to continue their unlikely title push.
GOAL ⚓️⚓️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) July 30, 2023
João Morelli scores his first goal of the season and his 20th career #CanPL goal!🔥@HFXWanderersFC double their lead to make it 2-0 vs. @yorkutdfc
🔴 Watch LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/SSJis8UOkr
What I’m watching next week: Halifax Wanderers vs Pacific FC
On a weekend where there’s a Cavalry vs Forge clash, a must-win Valour vs Vancouver battle and an all-Ontario rivalry battle between Ottawa and York, this matchday promises to be a treat, especially as it can be argued that Halifax vs Pacific could arguably be the biggest of them all.
With a Halifax win, the top four could tighten right up, making this a game to watch.
Because of that, look for Halifax to continue their strong home form, as they chase a sixth straight victory at Wanderers Ground. Especially after they did well to beat Pacific not that long ago, they’ll look to build off what they showed in that game.
As for Pacific, they’ll look to continue to be road warriors, building off their solid showing against Valour. Having felt that the score didn’t reflect their performance in that away Wanderers performance, they’ll be out for revenge.
Safe to say, there’s a lot to look forward to in this Coastal Clash, one that usually doesn’t disappoint.
