AGR's High Press: Reon Moore's heroics puts Pacific in the driver's seat in race for 5th place in CPL table
It all comes down to this.
After 27 matchdays stretched across six months, the final weekend of the CPL regular season is upon us.
For the final time in 2024, all eight teams will be in action, before the field gets narrowed ahead of the playoffs, which start next week.
And speaking of the playoffs, despite it being the last week of regular season action, the postseason field is yet to be finalized, meaning there is still all to play for this weekend.
Sometimes, this last weekend can be a pointless exercise, but not this time.
Heading into the playoffs, which never seem to disappoint in terms of drama, this is a good appetizer, getting fans set for the main course that awaits them.
With that in mind, here’s what stood out from matchweek #27, as well as a look ahead to matchweek #28, in this week’s ‘High Press’.
Reon Moore to the rescue for Pacific:
In an instant, everything changed.
For a moment, it looked like York United were going to do the Halifax Wanderers, Valour and Vancouver FC a big favour, as they were leading Pacific 1-0 through 80 minutes at York Lions Stadium last Thursday.
The first match of a crucial matchday, a York victory would’ve been massive for those three aforementioned teams, who were all in action later in the week, with Halifax set to visit Cavalry and Vancouver set to host Valour.
With just three points separating the four teams from #5 to #8 in the CPL standings, Pacific dropping points would’ve opened the door for the other teams to take advantage in a big way.
Instead, Pacific found a way to break the game open with a wild 10-minute stretch, as they turned that 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead thanks to 82nd and 88th-minute goals from Reon Moore.
Despite entering the game with just one CPL goal to his name in his debut campaign, coming back in May against this same York side, Moore found a way to put that behind him in a big way.
Certainly, fortune played a big role in both goals, as he was in the right place at the right time on both, although he took them extremely well, finding a way to not shrink in the face of the moment.
At the same time, it was the exact fortune Pacific had deserved in the match. Having been denied what appeared to be a clear penalty when the game was still 1-0, it felt like that could’ve been a massive moment for them, allowing them to capitalize on momentum that they’d done well to build all game long.
PACIFIC WANT A PENALTY! 🖊
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 11, 2024
All of the @Pacificfccpl shouted for a handball inside the box by Elijah Adekugbe, but referee Ben Hoskins said play on ❌
Thoughts? 🤔
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/KLKuKgzNtz
Right from the start of the game, they did well to put York under pressure, reflected by the fact that they generated 11 first-half corners to York’s one - yet in a cruel twist of fate, York had found a way to score on that lone corner while Pacific had failed to turn any of that pressure into goals.
GOAL 👑
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 11, 2024
WHAT A STRIKE FROM OSWALDO LEON! The @yorkutdfc defender puts his side ahead with a great volley inside the box ⚽️
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/A3Qn3KyMkj
Fittingly, however, their first goal came on a corner, their only corner of the second half, as they made sure not to waste that opportunity when it came to them.
GOAL 🔱
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 11, 2024
AT LAST, @Pacificfccpl HAVE AN EQUALIZER! Reon Moore finds a loose ball inside the box after a corner and makes no mistake to level things up ⚽️
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/X7inpnmXn7
Then, their second goal came in open play, as they actually caught York in possession on a fantastic Kunle Dada-Luke tackle, one that forced the ball loose and created a 2v1 for Pacific’s Dario Zanatta and Moore, which they capitalized on.
GOAL 🔱🔱
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 11, 2024
REON MOORE SCORES AGAIN! @Pacificfccpl have turned it around at York Lions Stadium and may have just secured a crucial victory in the race for the last playoff spot. Scenes! ⚽️
Kunle Dada-Luke’s tackle though… 😍
🔴 Watch the #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/EPOfpuHcJh
That goal was arguably even more fitting, as for all of their ups and downs this year, Pacific have remained a strong defensive side, entering this final weekend having conceded the third-fewest xG in the CPL (per WyScout).
Because of that, for them to score on a bit of good defensive play will have felt rewarding, as it’s often felt like their good defence this year has come at the cost of their offence, but that wasn’t the case on this goal.
With that, they were able to halt a two-game losing streak, and put them back in the driver’s seat in terms of this race for the fifth and final playoff spot. They got some help, as Vancouver ended up drawing Valour, as a Vancouver win would’ve tied them with Pacific (and put them ahead on a tiebreaker), but they’ll also look at the pressure this York win caused as a reason why Vancouver failed to win this weekend.
Now, sitting with 3W-2D-2L in their last seven games, Pacific’s put themselves in a position where they control their own destiny in the playoff race, which seemed like an unlikely proposition just months ago.
Yet, this York game seemed to be a perfect example of what Pacific’s done well as of late (aside from their recent 4-1 thumping from Cavalry where two red cards sunk them) - strong defensive play and timely goals.
Race for second place comes down to the wire:
With Forge having clinched the CPL Shield, an honour they celebrated this past weekend, it’s now turned the spotlight to the race for second place, which is a massively important battle.
Given that it’s the difference between being potentially able to host a final and having to go through a gauntlet where at least three wins are required to lift the North Star Cup, it makes a huge difference to nab that second place.
Now, there are only two teams left standing in that race, as York’s loss to Pacific didn’t just eliminate them from being able to finish in the top two - they’re now locked into fourth place, meaning they’ll host the first game of the playoffs on Wednesday, October 23rd - expect them to rest players for their away trip to Halifax this weekend with that in mind.
Yet, credit can be given to Cavalry and Atlético Ottawa for that, as they picked up a pair of massive wins this weekend to remain #2 and #3 in the table.
First, Ottawa had a big win over Forge, as they put together one of their best performances in months, a 2-0 win over the CPL Shield winners. Were Forge at their best, and perhaps thinking ahead to a post-game trophy lift in this game? It seemed so at times, but it’s never easy to go to Hamilton, win and keep a clean sheet, so Ottawa can be pleased with what they did on both sides of the ball to make that result happen.
GOAL 🦖@AtletiOttawa go up 2-0 over @ForgeFChamilton as Sam Salter catches gets on the end of a spilled effort after a smart first-touch off a cross 😎
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 12, 2024
🔴 Watch #CanPL on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/2QEhelPNqP
Unfortunately for Ottawa, however, that win didn’t end up meaning too much - Cavalry then picked up a key 2-1 win over Halifax, securing that win with a 79th-minute set-piece marker from Callum Montgomery, as they continued to be dominant on dead ball situations.
GOAL🐎🐎@CPLCavalryFC have regained their lead over Halifax!
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) October 13, 2024
It's chaos in the box after a perfect Ali Musse corner, and Callum Montgomery gets the final touch to make it 2-1 with 10' to go
🔴Watch #CanPL LIVE on OneSoccer pic.twitter.com/nT78l2WVNC
In particular, that Cavalry win has had a massive impact on the final week - they now hold a two-point lead over Ottawa, putting them in the driver’s seat ahead of that matchday.
Now, it’ll be fascinating to see how this final weekend plays out, as it’ll make a big difference for both teams' playoff hopes.
Interestingly, both teams seem to be well built for the playoffs - they’re the top two teams in terms of limiting xG against per WyScout, which is always key ahead of knockout games, but it’s worth noting that Cavalry is the top xG generator, too, while Ottawa is fourth.
What that means is that while both teams would benefit massively from playing in the #1 vs #2 match where the winner can host the final and the loser can still get a second shot in the other semi-final, it feels like Cavalry would still have a strong shot at making a run if they drop to #3.
As for Ottawa, however, it might benefit them slightly more to finish #2, although it’s worth noting that both teams have arguably been better on the road than at home, as Ottawa has collected 23 points on the road and 20 at home - Cavalry have collected 22 at ATCO Field and 23 at home.
What that could mean, however, is that Cavalry might be more focused on ensuring they reach the playoffs as healthy as possible knowing they hold the driver’s seat in the race for that second spot, whereas Ottawa might be more locked in on finishing at all costs.
One last note, however - Ottawa does have a record of 3W-0D-1L against Forge this season, while Cavalry has 1W-1D-2L, which will be another reason that pushes Ottawa to want to finish strongly to get that crack at Forge in the first semi-final. Of course, Cavalry will be happy to play Forge in that #1 vs #2 match, given what’s at stake, but this shows that they’ll have to be wary of an Ottawa push in their game against Vancouver while Cavalry gets set for their visit to Winnipeg to play Valour. 
Previewing the Outcome:
Speaking of that last weekend, however, it’s worth diving into what could still happen for the eight teams in action, with Pacific hosting Forge, Valour hosting Cavalry, Ottawa hosting Vancouver and Halifax hosting York.
This is how the #CanPL playoff bracket looks through 27 of 28 matches!
— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) October 17, 2024
First and fourth are locked in, but the battle for second and fifth will conclude on Saturday 🔥
Who do you want to see your team play or avoid in the postseason? 👀 pic.twitter.com/px3i3XefL8
First, it’s important to note that of those four matches, just one will be without any playoff stakes, and that’s Halifax vs. York - York is locked into that fourth spot while Halifax is the lone team eliminated from the playoff race, although it’s worth noting they aren’t locked into a Wooden Spoon spot and will have that to play for.
In terms of the other four, however, all have playoff implications, which will be fun to watch.
The CPL playoff picture will be finalized on Saturday when all four teams will play at the same time for the first time in league history 🔥
— Canadian Premier League (@CPLsoccer) October 17, 2024
Here are the final playoff clinch scenarios in the race for the final playoff spot, and the race for second: https://t.co/TGQe8NdgxX…
To begin, there’s Pacific’s match against Forge, which is a massive match for the race toward a fifth and final playoff spot. Should Pacific pick up a win, it won’t matter what Vancouver or Valour do in their games, as they’ll clinch the fifth and final playoff spot. Anything but a victory from Pacific, however, and things get interesting - should Pacific draw, Vancouver can pass them with a win, and if Pacific lose, both Vancouver and Valour could pass them with victories.
Against a Forge side already assured of first place, Pacific hopes that can give them an edge, as their destiny remains in their hands.
Then, in the Cavalry vs. Valour match, there’ll be two big things to watch - first, there’s Cavalry’s battle for that second spot, which they can clinch with a win, as a draw will require them to rely on Ottawa to drop points against Vancouver. Secondly, there’s Valour, who will want to win, and then hope they can get some help elsewhere.
Lastly, that leaves Ottawa vs. Vancouver, which is a game where neither side controls their destiny, which could arguably lead to the best match of them all, as they’ll both want to go all-out for a win to put pressure on the sides they’re battling with.
Because of all that, make sure not to miss these games during this final weekend - perhaps, this will be a good time to test any multi-screen set-ups, or find a way to be constantly switching between matches, because there’s plenty still to play for in these final games of the regular season. 
Who caught my eye? Sami Keshavarz
Despite having cleared their U21 minutes threshold a while ago, Pacific have continued to rely on some key young players in this playoff push, which has now pushed them close to earning 5000 minutes on the year, almost 2000 ahead of second-place Vancouver in that category.
One of those youngsters has been their local 18-year-old Sami Keshavarz, who has started to carve out a regular role as of late. A midfielder, he has good confidence on the ball, likes to play between the lines, and has proven to be fearless, and that’s helped Pacific in some key games lately.
Yet, that’s fitting, as Pacific’s motto since day one in the CPL has been to “Play The Kids”, and it’s good to see them keep that up even as they enter the crunch period of a schedule, one where sometimes it can be hard for younger players to get on the pitch.
That’s a credit to them, but also a credit to Keshavarz for proving he belongs in this Pacific side, and he’ll now look to help his team get their playoff dreams over the line in the final week. 
What I’m watching: Pacific vs. Forge
While it might not end up being the most entertaining match of the weekend, it feels important to keep a close eye on this game, given that it’ll essentially dictate the race for that fifth spot.
At the same time, it’s not as if there isn’t intrigue with this Forge side. For example, how much do they rotate with the playoffs around the corner? Or do they go full strength to keep their rhythm?
Especially against a Pacific side that will be scrapping for their lives, that adds another layer to their decision, as they’ll know their opponents will be going all out no matter what they do. Something to watch out for, that’s for sure.
