Does Tani Oluwaseyi still have a shot at starting the CanMNT’s World Cup opener?

 

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With his two-assist cameo off the bench against Uzbekistan, did Tani Oluwaseyi make enough of a case to start the CanMNT’s World Cup opener against Bosnia & Herzegovina on June 12th? 

Certainly, Oluwaseyi did enough to keep that discussion open, which is exactly what he’ll have wanted to do when he came into that Uzbekistan game at half-time with the score tied at 0-0. He wasn’t able to find the back of the net in his team’s 2-0 victory, but he did everything but score, with his two assists proving to be a deserved reward for the hard work he did on both sides of the ball. 

GOAL ⚽️

JONATHAN OSORIOOOOOO 😎

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— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 2, 2026

For a Canadian team that entered this match with just two open-play goals in their previous seven games, Oluwaseyi’s contributions were quite welcome, too, as he helped Canada snap that drought in a big way just in time for the World Cup. 

GOAL ⚽️⚽️

JAYDEN NELSON DOUBLES CANADA'S LEAD 😎

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— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 2, 2026

But for all of the good that Oluwaseyi brought to the game, he also frustrated. Despite generating four shots, including several dangerous opportunities in and around the box, he was unable to find the back of the net, missing a few glorious chances to score. 

As a result, Oluwaseyi remains stuck on just two goals for Canada, which is less than ideal for a striker who has played over 1000 minutes across 23 appearances for Les Rouges. 

Tani Oluwaseyi is denied 🙅‍♂️

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— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 2, 2026

Yet, that’s the conundrum that the CanMNT faces with Oluwaseyi - when he’s on the pitch, he does a lot of things right, except the thing that players in his position are typically leaned on to do, which is to score. 

For a Canadian team that has had their fair share of struggles when it comes to scoring, they’ve understandably given him a much shorter leash as of late because of that - after starting Canada’s last 8 of 10 matches to end 2025, Oluwaseyi has started just once in three games in 2026, only going around an hour in that start. 

After he showed against Uzbekistan, however, should that change heading into the World Cup? You can’t help but ponder that question, especially when considering the context of this game and how what we learned fits into what we know about Canada’s striker group. 

For example, one thing that stood out about Oluwaseyi’s cameo against Uzbekistan? While he was unable to score, you can’t deny that once he was on the pitch, Canada immediately looked more dangerous as a team. 

Whether or not that is because Canada tweaked their formation at half-time, wore down Uzbekistan with their possession play, or got a different look with Oluwaseyi up front remains up for debate, but the reality is that they looked more likely to score with the Villarreal CF forward up front.

Here's an example of what Oluwaseyi can do well (and where he has frustrated), as he makes a great run off the ball to create a breakaway chance, one he's unable to convert (OneSoccer/TSN)

After a first half where they generated just three shots, it stood out how much more dynamic they were in the second half, generating seven shot attempts (with two of them being big chances, something they failed to generate in the first half). 

Especially when looking at the first-half numbers of the player who Oluwaseyi replaced at half-time, Cyle Larin, who had only 1 shot and 10 touches (none in the box) in his 45 minutes of action - by comparison, Oluwaseyi was a hive of activity in his 45-minute cameo, generating four shots, creating two chances, and taking 21 touches (including four in the box), which helped Canada immensely. 

For those who have watched Oluwaseyi with Canada, however, this isn’t new. As mentioned earlier, Oluwaseyi tends to be a pretty busy player when he’s on the pitch for Canada, and the numbers back that up. 

Just look at the statistics of Canada’s strikers since head coach Jesse Marsch debuted in June of 2024 (a fitting timeline since Oluwaseyi made his CanMNT debut in Marsch’s 2nd game in charge).

Here's how Canada's various striker options have fared in the minutes they've earned for the CanMNT since Jesse Marsch has taken over. All numbers via OPTA. 

Across those 30 games that Canada has now played in that span, despite playing the third-most minutes of the seven out-and-out strikers that have featured across that span, Oluwaseyi has the joint-most shots, the second-most touches in the box, and the second-most xG (both in terms of total xG and per-90 xG), showing his ability to find himself in dangerous situations. 

In particular, it stands out that he now has as many shots as Jonathan David, and isn’t far behind in terms of touches in the box and xG (especially considering a good chunk of David’s xG will come from penalties) despite playing less than half of the minutes, sitting as a sign of both Oluwaseyi’s productivity and Canada’s struggles to get the best out of David in the past 12 months. 

At the same time, while all of those numbers stand out positively for Oluwaseyi, you also can’t help but notice that he has also underperformed his xG by a whopping 5.37 goals, showing his struggles to turn the chances he gets on the end of into goals.

Here's Oluwaseyi's shot chart for the CanMNT. There are a few games missing from this data, including the Uzebekistan friendly, but it shows how goal-dangerous he's been, even if he's not actually turned his chances into goals (WyScout)

Therein lies the conundrum Canada faces with Oluwaseyi, however. 

Based on the numbers, there are strong reasons to suggest that he should absolutely be the favourite to start alongside Jonathan David if Canada continues to persist with using two strikers up front, especially if you’re one to believe that he’ll eventually start to convert the chances he’s created and start performing closer to what his xG suggests he should be. 

Given that Canada has had some of their best offensive performances since the start of 2025 with him in the starting lineup, such as when they beat the US 2-1 in the 24-25 Concacaf Nations League third-place game (a game he scored in), Honduras 6-0 in the 2025 Gold Cup opener (a game he also scored in) and Romania 3-0 in a friendly last fall (a game he had an assist in), it shows what can happen when everything clicks around Oluwaseyi. 

GOAL 🇨🇦🇨🇦

It's TANI TIME 😎#CanMNT are up 2-0 over Honduras 🇭🇳 at the stroke of half-time as Tani Oluwaseyi finds a near-impossible angle and smacks it home 🚀

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— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 18, 2025

On the flip side, you can also look at his raw numbers and think about the opportunities that have gone to waste with Oluwaseyi on the pitch, which might not stand out as much in a 2-0 win vs. Uzbekistan or some of those other positive performances, but have loomed large in past matches like Canada’s 0-0 draw against Ecuador in October, where Oluwaseyi missed a huge opportunity to put Canada up 1-0 despite being down a player. In a tournament like the World Cup, missed chances like that could be costly. 

Tani Oluwaseyi's shot is saved by Galindez 😫

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— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) November 14, 2025

Ultimately, though, that’s the eternal debate with strikers - is it better to have a forward who generates chances and struggles to finish them, or one who struggles to generate chances but finishes them pretty decently? When looking at the battle between Oluwaseyi and Larin to start alongside Jonathan David, that seems to be the question that Marsch is currently pondering.

With both struggling to score for Canada, as Larin has also scored just once in 23 appearances under Marsch, the answer could also very well be neither. The option is always there for Marsch to shake things up and play Jonathan David as a lone striker, while many will clamour for Promise David to start (something we probably would've been seeing more of this year if not for an unfortunately timed injury for P. David), even if both seem unlikely at this stage. 

Although it must be said that seeing P. David look good in his return to action against Uzbekistan will open up discussions, even if he looks unlikely to be able to start a game in the immediate future as he works his way back up to full fitness. That he was a narrow offside call away from adding his fourth goal in under 300 minutes for Canada shows why it’s so unfortunate that he suffered the injury he did. 

GOA-NOOOOO 😢

Promise David puts the ball in the net but is deemed offside 🤬

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— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 2, 2026

Presuming that the battle to start remains between Oluwaseyi and Larin, however, this Uzbekistan game might be enough evidence to suggest that Oluwaseyi could now be in pole position heading into the start of the World Cup. 

It can’t be forgotten that while Larin had seemingly regained top spot in the pecking order in recent months, that was only due to his outstanding club form. That wasn’t unfair, either, as Larin ended the year on a high note, scoring nine goals in an impressive half-season loan with Southampton, while Oluwaseyi scored just seven goals in his debut season with Villarreal CF, including just two after November. 

In international football, though, club form can sometimes go out the window, and that Larin has been unable to translate that Southampton form to recent starts for Canada serves as a reminder of that - while club form can get you into a squad and a lineup, it isn’t always enough to keep you there.

Here's a moment that show why Larin has struggled for Canada. Given his profile as a striker who thrives when he can finish chances in and around the box with his first touch, it could be argued that strikers such as Oluwaseyi, Jonathan David or Promise David would be better suited to earn an opportunity like this, as they would've likely carried the ball a bit more to create a dangerous chance (OneSoccer/TSN)

Ultimately, if Canada is to look more lively with Oluwaseyi on the pitch, that might be enough for him to earn a starting role to start the World Cup. It’s not as if such a role means he has to play the full 90, either, as he can try to be as impactful in 45 to 60 minutes before Canada brings on Larin or P. David to shake things up. 

After all, an underrated part of Oluwaseyi’s game is his ability to stretch defensive lines with his constant runs in behind and his relentless pressing, which is something that didn’t even come up in this debate, which has mostly centred around the things strikers are expected to do (creating and scoring goals). 

It can’t hurt Oluwaseyi’s case that even on a day when he’s not scoring, he’s still providing value in terms of what he brings off the ball, while still getting involved in the game by finding chances in the box and the final third. Not only will those things help his teammates and make Jesse Marsch’s direct, vertical high-pressing system more effective, but that’ll also tire out defenders and make life easier for the likes of Larin and P. David when they come onto the pitch.

Here's an example of how Oluwaseyi's constant movement off the ball can open up space and help create dangerous chances. Watch him during this entire sequence, and see what sort of spaces he opens up for others.  (OneSoccer/TSN)

Plus, it’s not as if Oluwaseyi is a naturally poor finisher. He’s struggled to find the level required to be a consistent finisher internationally, as well as at the level of the top five leagues since his move there (he has just 0.22 goals and 0.25 xG per 90 in over 1600 minutes for Villarreal in 25/26), but he did score 0.49 goals on 0.50 xG across 3300+ minutes of action with Minnesota United in MLS (numbers via WyScout), which shows that he can be a competent finisher.

Here's Oluwaseyi's La Liga shot map from the 2025-2026 season - even if he's struggled to create his usual shot volume, the shots he's generated are high-quality ones (FotMob)

That he’s continued to generate similar xG numbers with Canada suggests that he could perhaps find more goals, even if he doesn’t score at the same rate as he did with Minnesota, which was enough to get him a move to a UEFA Champions League-level club in the top five leagues, after all. 

By comparison, here's Oluwaseyi's shot map from his final MLS season with Minnesota United, which is exactly what you want to see from a striker (FotMob)

But even if those goals don’t come, if Canada continues to be more dangerous as a team with him on the pitch, that might be a trade-off they’ll have to live with.

GOAL 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦

Niko Sigur STARTS and FINISHES the counter-attack with a BANGER 🚀

Those CanMNT starting XI locks are starting to look a little flimsy, no? 🔓

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— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) September 5, 2025

Because of that, it’ll be fascinating to see if he can build on this cameo in Canada’s final pre-World Cup friendly, which will be against the Republic of Ireland on June 5th. 

Based on what he showed against Uzbekistan, he might’ve done enough to earn a start in that game, which, if that’s the case, will provide him with an excellent opportunity to prove that he could be the one to start Canada’s World Cup opener against Bosnia. 

And even if that start doesn’t come against Ireland, another lively cameo like this off the bench will only further help his case, especially if Canada has another quiet offensive outing with Larin starting up front - who hasn’t been on the field for a Canadian goal in his last five starts and last six total appearances.