SCOUTING REPORT: What should the CanMNT expect from Guatemala in the Nations League quarter-finals?
For the first time since July, the CanMNT are back in competitive action this week, as they take on Guatemala in the quarter-finals of the 2026-2027 Concacaf Nations League.
Got the gang back together! Touched down in Mexico as the prep for Guatemala begins 😤 #CANMNT https://t.co/Jt6AqFnFl9
— CANMNT (@CANMNT_Official) November 9, 2026
After earning a bye through the group stage, Canada, along with Mexico, the US, and Panama, now enter the knockout stage, where they’re joined by group stage qualifiers Guatemala, Curaçao, Haiti, and Jamaica to round out the eight teams looking to lift the Nations League trophy next spring.
For Canada, the mission is simple in this competition - they have their eyes on winning the tournament, as they look to snap their 26+ year trophy drought, which dates back to their Gold Cup triumph at the beginning of 2000.
They’ll have two opportunities to snap that drought in 2027, with the Nations League finals in March and the Gold Cup coming later in the summer, but among those two tournaments, one has to imagine they’re quite focused on the Nations League, in particular.
While the Gold Cup is the more historic and prestigious tournament on offer in Concacaf, the Nations League, which only launched in 2018 and is in just its fifth edition, has quickly grown in prestige among Concacaf teams. Namely, the big reason for that is the timing of the games, which come during FIFA windows, which has led teams to bring stronger squads than they do for the Gold Cup, where teams typically don’t bring many of their top players due to the tournament’s timing every two summers.
Therefore, while on paper a Nations League crown might not carry the same weight as a Gold Cup triumph, it would be seen as a veritable coup for this Canadian team, given that they would have to overcome the best version of their Concacaf foes to make it happen. For a team still looking to prove itself as a top side in Concacaf despite taking tangible steps to indicate that they’re now a top three side in the region, that could go a long way towards further improving their growing reputation as a side.
Now, to make that happen, Canada will want to take care of business against a Guatemala team with which they share some history. As many will remember, this same Guatemala side actually upset Canada in the quarter-finals of the 2025 Gold Cup, denying a strong Canadian team a chance at a trophy.
The last thing this Canadian side would want is for another talented group’s ambitions of silverware to be derailed by this same Guatemala side, showing why they’ll come out firing in this tie. Even if this Canadian squad is quite depleted as they continue to deal with a massive injury crisis, they understand how important this tie is for them, as they look to reach the final four of the Nations League for the third time in the past four editions.
Jesse Marsch opens CanMNT 🇨🇦 camp in Cancun ahead of 2x crucial Concacaf Nations League match-ups vs. Guatemala 🇬🇹 🎙️ "There are 4 - maybe 5 - trophies on the line; we want to make sure that we are ready to compete for every one of them." https://t.co/U4cxNMp9N2
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) November 10, 2026
They know it won’t be an easy battle, but that’s not the worst thing for them, as this is a Canadian team that is battle-tested - with their run to the Round of 16 at this past summer’s World Cup serving as proof of that.
With that in mind, here’s what to expect from Guatemala in this matchup, and how Canada will look to take care of business across these matches, which will be played on Friday, November 13th in Guatemala City and on Monday, November 16th in Toronto (with away goals in effect for this tie).
Can Guatemala continue its quiet ascendancy in Concacaf?
At the beginning of this decade, Guatemala was still recovering from the scandal that rocked their federation in 2016, when they were suspended by FIFA following allegations of corruption, leaving them unable to even qualify for the 2017 and 2019 Gold Cup.
Because of that, they had dropped to 131st in the world in 2020, which is a big fall for a team that had once been ranked 57th in the world in 2014 and 50th in the world in 2006.
What that shows, though, is why it’s been significant to see them now climb to 97th in the world, as they’ve done a good job of building up their rank again this decade. They qualified for the Gold Cup in 2021, 2023 and 2025, and have improved on their results in each tournament - they exited in the group stage in 2021, reached the quarter-finals in 2023, and then reached the semi-finals in 2025. 
Here's how Guatemala's FIFA Ranking has looked over the last six years (FIFA)
Then, in the Nations League, they’ve climbed from League C, where they found themselves in 2019-2020, all the way up to League A, with this being the third straight edition where they’ve participated in League A - and the first time they’ve reached the quarter-finals, too, having fallen in the group stage in each of the last two editions (but doing enough to avoid relegation each time).
Their ascendancy was reflected in the most recent edition of World Cup qualifiers, as they weren’t far off reaching the 2026 World Cup, falling in the third round of Concacaf qualifying. There, they missed out on an automatic spot by only four points and were one point off reaching the intercontinental playoffs; in 2021, they were eliminated in the first round of qualifiers for the 2022 World Cup, although they only missed out on qualification to the second round via a tiebreaker.
Of course, it can’t be forgotten that the qualifiers for the 2026 tournament didn’t feature Mexico, the US or Canada, which made things easier for teams like Guatemala to make a deep run. At the same time, when looking at their performances there, as well as how they’ve performed in recent Gold Cup and Nations League tournaments, they can argue that they’re now a top 10 Concacaf side, which is relevant as six Concacaf teams will qualify for the 2030 World Cup - an objective that seems realistic for Guatemala.
La #SeleMayor bajo la dirección técnica del Prof. Luis Fernando Tena realizó su entrenamiento en el Centro de Alto Rendimiento con miras al partido ante Canadá en la Liga de Naciones de Concacaf. #VamosGuate #ModoSelección 💪🏽⚽️💙🇬🇹 https://t.co/W8l9QXNXdO
— FFG🇬🇹 (@fedefut_oficial) November 10, 2026
Now, the best way to further prove that? By having more strong performances at Concacaf tournaments, such as this Nations League or next summer’s Gold Cup, helping them build momentum ahead of the start of World Cup qualifiers next fall.
They got off to a good start to this new cycle in the last window, as they surprisingly topped a group with Jamaica, Suriname, Honduras, Martinique and El Salvador to earn a berth in these Nations League quarter-finals, which they only secured with a win against Suriname in the final of four group stage matchdays - now, they’ll take that momentum into this Canadian tie.
They’ll know that this Canadian team will be tough to beat, but they’ll feel confident, especially given what they achieved in the last competitive meeting between these two teams. Of course, this Canadian team has come a long way since then, but the same can be said for Guatemala, who have continued to make big strides under manager Luis Fernando Tena, who has been in charge since 2021.
Armed with a clear tactical identity, Guatemala will certainly be hard to play against, as they do a good job of sitting in a compact and organized 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 formation. Canada learned that the hard way in their matchup, as they struggled to break down their defensive shape in a 1-1 regulation draw, one that opened the door for Guatemala to win on penalties.
Canada did earn a red card on that day, as Jacob Shaffelburg was sent off just before half-time with his side leading 1-0, but even before that, they had struggled to break down Guatemala, with a Jonathan David penalty being how they found their lone goal on the day.
Guatemala does have some skilled players who can cause problems for Canada, such as CF Montréal’s Olger Escobar, Antigua Guatemala attacker William Fajardo, or striker Darwin Lom, who plays for Bolivian side The Strongest, but their biggest strength is their collective, especially without the ball. Led by defenders such as former DC United full back Aaron Herrera, and captain Nicolás Samayoa of CSD Municipal, and Columbus Crew goalkeeper Nicholas Hagen, this Guatemala side can be stingy and hard to break down.
That’s worth noting heading into this matchup, as one of Canada’s biggest struggles since the arrival of head coach Jesse Marsch in 2024 has been their ability to break down teams who sit back in compact, low blocks.
Guatemala will know that, and will do everything in their power to make life miserable for Canada, especially in the first leg at home, where they’ll want to leave with a positive result - especially if that result means Canada doesn’t score, given that away goals are in effect for this tie.
The longer this tie can go on with things still level, the more of an advantage that can be for Guatemala, especially if they can find a way to nab an away goal or two in the second leg.
Otherwise, one thing worth noting about this Guatemala side? Ahead of the World Cup, they took advantage of the opportunity to test themselves against tough competition, as they played three World Cup-bound sides in the lead-up to the tournament - first, they took on Algeria in March, losing 7-0, before taking on the Czech Republic and Ecuador in June, losing 3-1 and 3-0, respectively.
While those results might actually build Canada’s confidence, Guatemala will feel that they’ll have learned plenty from those games as they now get set to play another team that participated in the 2026 World Cup.
What to expect from Canada?
When seeing all of that, it shows what Canada should expect this window - it’s going to be a feisty and hard-fought 180-minute battle, as is typical of a match of this nature. This isn’t anything new for Canada, who will remember playing a similar sort of game in the 2024-2025 Nations League quarter-finals, where they took on Suriname.
In that tie, which they won 4-0 on aggregate, they did a great job of grinding out an ugly 1-0 away win in leg one, which set the table for a comfortable 3-0 leg two win at home - a result they’d love to replicate in this tie.
To do that, however, they know that they’ll have to be sharp in possession, or else they’ll struggle to break down Guatemala’s low block.
If they can score a goal or two in that first leg, that would be huge, even if they end up drawing, as picking up a couple of away goals would force Guatemala to play more aggressively in the second leg, which would play into Canada’s hands.
Of course, given Canada’s quality, they won’t be content with just scraping by Guatemala, so don’t be surprised if they come out strong in both legs, with the intent of picking up a commanding win.
At the same time, they’ll just have to be wary of the challenges a tie like this offers, especially on the road, as these are the exact sort of Concacaf road games that can trip up overconfident opposition.
Plus, it can’t be forgotten that given some of the absences they’re dealing with, Canada might not be as aggressive as liked with their lineups. Among regulars, they’ll be without Ismaël Koné, Stephen Eustáquio, Cyle Larin, Moïse Bombito, Derek Cornelius, Alistair Johnston, Ali Ahmed, Jacob Shaffelburg, Marcelo Flores and Alfie Jones due to injuries, which is almost a full starting XI worth of key players.
Despite that, they’ll still be able to put out a strong starting lineup, especially with Alphonso Davies back in the fold after missing the September/October window, and with the inclusion of players such as Jonathan David, Nathan Saliba, Tajon Buchanan and Richie Laryea in this squad, but those injuries have weakened Canada in some key areas.
In particular, this Canadian team is a bit light in midfield and at the back, which isn’t ideal heading into a tie like this, where defensive mistakes can prove to be costly. Especially when considering that this Canadian team has struggled to consistently score goals, no matter who is available, that’s a worry, even if this Canadian team has proven to be pretty good defensively even when missing key defenders such as Bombito, Cornelius and Johnston.
Otherwise, when looking at some potential lineup battles this camp, Canada has a few interesting discussions worth monitoring across the pitch.
In goal, Maxime Crépeau looks likely to start both games after being Canada’s #1 at the World Cup, but as usual, Dayne St. Clair is another option, while Owen Goodman could also earn a look after earning his first Canada start in the September/October window.
Then, at the back, Luc De Fougerolles seems a lock at centre back, but it remains to be seen whether Marsch goes for the experienced Joel Waterman or Ralph Priso alongside him. Then, at full-back, Richie Laryea is also a lock, but will he play at right back with Alphonso Davies at left back? Or will Laryea stick at left back with Niko Sigur playing on the right?
Speaking of Davies, however, his inclusion in the squad opens up the biggest starting XI questions, especially given his form lately for Bayern Munich, where he’s been playing more as a winger as of late. Does he drop right back in as a left back, as he was for the first year of Marsch’s tenure before an ACL injury? Or does he get used as a winger, with the hope of translating that Bayern form and jumpstarting Canada’s attack?
With Jacob Shaffelburg's recent injury ruling him out of CanMNT 🇨🇦 vs. Guatemala 🇬🇹 match-ups, are we about to see captain Alphonso Davies back at LW, at long last? 🪽 https://t.co/ocPOS1Aedk
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) November 10, 2026
If he goes on the wing, that’s bad news for one of Tajon Buchanan and Liam Millar, who would likely drop to the bench - but if Davies goes to left back, both of them could start.
Meanwhile, in midfield, Nathan Saliba’s health is the big thing to watch - after missing a few games for Villarreal CF, will he be good to start? If so, he’s a lock and would either pair with Mathieu Choinière or Niko Sigur, who are both good options; if not, Choinière and Sigur would likely start together, which would potentially push Davies back to left back.
Then, up front, Jonathan David is a lock, but with no Cyle Larin, it appears that he’ll start alongside Tani Oluwaseyi, who has found a bit of form lately for Villarreal. But with Oluwaseyi’s struggles to score for Canada, there will be pressure on him to perform, with many still hoping for a significant cameo for Promise David this window despite a lack of club minutes with Brighton & Hove Albion, given his excellent record off the bench for Canada.
For what it’s worth, with the short turnaround between these two matches, with just two days of rest between them (with one of them consisting of a long travel day), the reality is that Marsch might have to rotate significantly between both games to manage his squad, which is good news for those battling for minutes.
With that in mind, perhaps Marsch goes for a stingier lineup in Guatemala, before going more attack-heavy at home, allowing him to both manage the challenges of this home-and-away tie, as well as the questions of fatigue and rotation he’ll face.
Yet, once again, that shows why this is such a fascinating tie from a Canadian perspective - while there’s all sorts of evidence to suggest that Canada will cruise through this on paper, there are several fascinating obstacles for this Canadian side to get the result they desire, helping kickstart their journey towards a trophy on a high note.
