TIER LIST: Ranking each Canadian Premier League team ahead of 2024 season
After a lengthy offseason, the sixth season of the Canadian Premier League kicks off this weekend, a follow-up to a memorable fifth campaign that provided arguable some of the best domestic soccer to date.
The good news? All eight teams set to battle for the CPL Shield and North Star Cup are hungry to improve even further in 2024, bringing in an intriguing crop of talent. As such, it’s expected that the CPL will take a step forward again as it pushes toward the end of its first decade of play. Forge and Cavalry have titles to defend and the label of 'favourites' still firmly attached; the rest of the league will put in their best effort to dethrone the duo in the regular season and playoffs.
As Pacific FC proved in 2021, fortunes can quickly change.
Speaking of favourites, for newcomers looking to get a lay of the land, we've split each of the eight teams into different tiers based on their preseason expectations, giving an idea of where they stand as they enter this season.
Here’s that list, as well as one key question, a projected starting XI and an expected finish for each team ahead of opening weekend, coming up right here on OneSoccer.
TIER 1: Been there, done that
Cavalry FC
2023 Record: 16W-7D-5L (55 PTS)
Can they finally get over the playoff hump?
Despite enduring an offseason of heavy turnover, 2023 ended up being a ‘business as usual’ campaign for Cavalry, who maintained their status as the league’s most dominant regular season team.
As a result, they ran away with the regular season title despite some impressive pushes from Pacific, Forge and Halifax, finishing in first place by 13 points, allowing them to lift their first-ever trophy (they won the regular season in 2019, but there was no prize for doing so at the time).
But then, as had been the case in their previous four seasons, Cavalry came up short when it mattered in the postseason. First, it started in their first playoff game, as they fell to Forge in the preliminary semi-final, denying them the chance to host a final and forcing them to go to the elimination semi-final.
Then, after making it to the final thanks to a 2-1 win over Pacific in that game, they had a game to forget against Forge, as after making it to extra time, they fell 2-1 to worldies from Béni Badibanga and Tristan Borges in the 105th and 111th minute despite taking the lead through Ali Musse in the 101st minute.
As a result, they now remain without a playoff title despite two finals appearances and their regular season dominance, something they desperately want to change.
For what it’s worth, they’re set up nicely to contend again in 2024, as they’ve kept most of their core pieces such as Marco Carducci, Daan Klomp and Ali Musse, doing well to complement them with new signings such as Diego Gutiérrez, Malcolm Shaw and more, and they’ve now tasted continental soccer for the first time after qualifying for the 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup, where they fell to Orlando City 6-1 on aggregate in the first round.
Armed with that and the experience they accumulated last year, they’ll look to now maintain their regular season dominance while finally taking that final step in the playoffs, should they make it there.
Predicted Finish: 2nd
Forge FC
2023 Record: 11W-9D-8L (42 PTS)
Can core pieces maintain dominance?
Once again, Forge finished atop the CPL mountain by the end of the playoffs, winning their fourth North Star Cup in five years, as they continue to be the team to beat in the CPL. And their resume only speaks for itself - five final appearances, four North Star Cups, one regular season title, as they’ve been competitive in every season they’ve played.
Because of that, it’s hard to imagine any scenario where Forge doesn’t at least make the final again this year, until proven otherwise.
Despite that, it does feel like this Forge team is ripe for the picking compared to past years. Having lost key pieces such as Woobens Pacius, Aboubacar Sissoko, Rezart Rama and Manjrekar James, and likely to lose two-time goalkeeper of the year Triston Henry, it feels like this has been the toughest offseason they’ve had to navigate as of late.
To be fair, they were set up to handle this - their starting lineup remains one of the best in the league, even if they won’t be as deep as they were in 2023 - but it’s never easy to lose pieces like that.
Because of that, it feels like this season will be a big test for head coach Bobby Smyrniotis, who will look to continue to impose his identity on this team. Given that he’s still able to rely on core, day-one pieces like Kyle Bekker, Tristan Borges, David Choinière, and Alexander Achinioti-Jönsson, along with those who have joined them through the years such as Alessandro Hojabrpour, Terran Campbell and Béni Badibanga, this Forge team has the pieces to be dominant.
So even if his team faces stiffer competition from other teams in the regular season, the mentality and experience of this group make them early playoff favourites once again, and for good reason.
As long as they keep the hunger and desire that allowed them to claim four playoff crowns in five years, there is no reason why they can’t make it five in six, as they continue to build their dynasty over in Hamilton.
Predicted Finish: 4th
TIER 2: Primed for ascendancy
Halifax Wanderers
2023 Record: 11W-9D-8L (42 PTS)
Can linear growth continue for the Wanderers?
If there’s one word that can describe 2023 for the Wanderers, it is growth, as they finished as one of the best teams in the league after starting out of the gates slowly.
After taking until game #9 to get their first win, as they drew six and lost two of their first 8 games, they turned things up from there, finishing tied for second with Forge in the end, only dropping to third on a strange tiebreaker rule (away goal differential, instead of head-to-head, which would have favoured the Wanderers).
That growth came off the back of two things, too - first, the work done by first-year head coach Patrice Gheisar, who had his team playing some of the best and most entertaining soccer in the league by the end of the year by the eye test and the numbers, and then secondly, the growth of several key individual contributors such as Lorenzo Callegari, Masismo Ferrin and Dan Nimick, among others.
Through that formula, the Wanderers quickly went from a team that many expected to finish bottom two after the hiring of Gheisar and a busy offseason that saw them heavily turn over their roster, to a team that had legitimate championship pedigree by the end of the year.
And now, they’re primed to build on it, too. Having retained most of their key core pieces, such as Callegari, Nimick and Ferrin, and having added some key veteran experience in names such as Jérémy Gagnon-Laparé and Ryan Telfer, it feels like this team has put themselves in a position to improve on what they showed in year one under Gheisar.
So for them, the only question will be if they’re able to maintain that similar path of growth, especially given how they finished last year. Sometimes, the hardest part of becoming a top team isn’t the act of playing at the top level, but maintaining your level of play, as teams will do everything in their power to figure you out and slow you down.
Therefore, the Wanderers will now have to prove that the run they went on last year is something they can build off of, and not the maximum of their capabilities.
If they can do the former, they can certainly bring some trophies home to Halifax, so that’ll be the big goal for them this season.
Predicted Finish: 1st
Atlético Ottawa
2023 Record: 10W-6D-12L (36 PTS)
Can Atlético get this loaded team to gel quickly?
Has any team had a better single offseason than Atlético Ottawa? That’s the big question across the CPL, as Ottawa signed Rayane Yesli, Aboubacar Sissoko, Matteo de Brienne, Amer Didić, Manny Aparicio, Luke Singh, Ballou Tabla, Kris Twardek and Kevin Dos Santos in a landmark transfer window from them.
They did lose some key pieces in Miguel Acosta, Diego Espejo, Karl Ouimette, Carl Haworth and Malcolm Shaw, but they replaced them in as about as good of a way as they could’ve with the signings they’ve brought in, who bring in a great mix of CPL and other professional experience to the table.
Now, they can put together about as good a lineup as any in the CPL, with the likes of Yesli, de Brienne, Didić, Sissoko, Aparicio, Tabla and dos Santos all proving they can be CPL team of the season level players over the last few years, which is intriguing given that they’re joining a team that managed to keep former CPL MVP and Golden Boot winner, midfielder Ollie Bassett, too.
So for Ottawa, they’ve only got two questions - can coach Carlos González find a balance between his organized tactical structure and all of the offensive talent they’ve now signed, and can he find a way to keep everyone happy given that he’ll have a handful of starting calibre players on the bench each week.
If they can find the balance in both their tactics and personnel balanced with chemistry, this team has the potential to win the double and be one of the best in CPL history, but if not, it quickly unravel and make it a fight just to make the playoffs, such can be the margins when one makes a big offseason splash of this sort.
Predicted Finish: 3rd
TIER 3: Looking to re-tool on the fly
Vancouver FC
2023 Record: 8W-5D-15L (29 PTS)
Can Vancouver accelerate growth with key signings?
Overall, year one was a mixed bag for Vancouver. On one hand, they defied expectations by not finishing last despite a slow start, but as seen with a strong end to the season, which included a sequence where they won four out of five games, it felt like they could’ve done even better than they did in the end.
Because of that, it’s hard to gauge them heading into this year, especially after a busy offseason, in which they’ve loaded up on some experienced players, including several with ties to British Columbia and experience in the CPL such as David Norman Jr, Paris Gee, Ben Fisk, Zach Verhoven and Matteo Campagna. Along with the arrival of Moses Dyer and Kembo Kibato, that’s plenty of experience for a young group to now rely upon.
Now, they’ll look to prove that what they showed at the end of the year, where they established a core group of players that has mostly returned, headlined by the likes of Mikaël Cantave, Gabriel Bitar, Vasco Fry, Kadin Chung, Rocco Romeo, Callum Irving and more, is more of a true indication of what they can be, especially after the signings they’ve made to support that core group.
They’ve still got some key questions to answer, such as finding a fit for Alejandro Díaz up front given his scoring pedigree, as well as figuring out what their best formation will be after their signings, but that’ll be up to head coach Afshin Ghotbi to work that all out.
If he does, there’s potential for Vancouver to surprise, allowing them to accelerate the growth process for a team, something that they’d be happy to do.
And speaking of, that’ll be the last thing to watch out for on this team - don’t be surprised if some youngsters step up. Last year, Canadian U21 players James Cameron and TJ Tahid really stepped up, and they could be primed for more growth, while a new arrival such as 16-year-old Grady McDonnell looks to be a name who could similarly impress in his first season.
Predicted Finish: 5th
Pacific FC
2023 Record: 11W-7D-10L (40 PTS)
Can internal growth be enough for Pacific despite departures?
It’s been a tough offseason for Pacific, as they lost two key pillars of their team in Amer Didić and Manny Aparicio, who traded purple for the red and white stripes of Atlético Ottawa. Given that the pair were crucial for this team over the last few years, those are two huge losses, as they’re among the best players in the CPL at their respective positions, which won’t be easy to replace.
At the same time, Pacific does have a few players who can step up in their stead. At the back, Thomas Meilleur-Giguére remains, and Didić’s former centre back partner has proven that he can also be among the best in the league at his position, while in midfield Pacific will look to replace Aparicio with another year of growth from Sean Young, who had a 10-game stretch where he played at an MVP level for Pacific last year.
Along with Aymen Sellouf, who also showed MVP-level play in spurts for Pacific last year, there are still game-breakers they can lean on, and that’s without looking at pieces such as Kunle Dada-Luke, Josh Heard and Adonijah Reid, along with new signings Reon Moore and Dario Zanetta.
But there’s still an Aparicio and Didić-sized hole in this team, and the biggest challenge for head coach James Merriman will be to find out how to best fill it. There, his best chance might be by doing so by committee, with internal growth from players like Young, Paul Amedume, Emil Gazdov, Christian Greco-Taylor and Cédric Toussaint expected to be key, along with the aforementioned names from earlier.
Always a side who plays entertaining soccer, and was among the best offensive and defensive teams last year, there’s no reason why they can’t do that again this year, but it’ll require some big shifts from some unheralded names.
For what it’s worth, this isn’t anything new for them - they’ve seen key pieces like Terran Campbell, Lukas MacNaughton, Kadin Chung, Alessandro Hojabrpour, Alejandro Díaz, Callum Irving and more all depart over the years, and found a way to maintain their status as one of the top teams in the league, so they’ll look to keep that up again in 2024.
Predicted Finish: 6th
TIER 4: New arrivals looking to overcome key departures
York United
2023 Record: 11W-5D-12L (38 PTS)
Who will score the goals?
It was a rollercoaster year for York United in 2023, who spent most of the year alternating between being one of the top teams in the CPL and a Wooden Spoon candidate, leading them to only qualify for the playoffs in the last week as the fifth seed after flirting with being a title candidate early on.
Therefore, the big goal for York will be to find some consistency in 2024, and that’ll come from improved play at both ends of the field, as they were the fifth in goals for and seventh in goals against.
For what it’s worth, they seem primed to be pretty solid defensively - Frank Sturing was an excellent addition at centre back and should pair nicely with Noah Abatneh and Juan Córdova at the back, and they’ve got a good midfield led by Brem Soumaoro, Elijah Adekugbe and Matthew Baldisimo, which are all good signs.
The bigger question, however, will come up front, especially after losing two of their three top scorers in Osaze De Rosario and Kévin dos Santos (who had six goals apiece), leaving Mo Babouli (who also had six goals) as the main source of offence at the #10.
Austin Ricci and Brian Wright can help carry a lot of the load, after scoring just three and two goals last season, respectively, but that’s a lot of pressure for the pair, something they’ll have to embrace.
Other than that, however, there’s a lot to be optimistic with this York team, who made some intriguing international signings with Thomas Vincensini in goal, the Mexican trio of Orlando Botello, Oswaldo Léon and Josué Martinez, along with Dennis Salanović on the wing, who they’ll hope can add a spark to this group.
Led by a new ownership group off the field, this will look to be a year of renewal for York, and a big showing on the field will only help them in that process.
Predicted Finish: 7th
Valour FC
2023 Record: 6W-8D-14L (26 PTS)
Can Valour embrace underdog labels?
The pressure’s on in Winnipeg. Of the eight teams in the league, just Valour and Vancouver are the only teams not to make the playoffs - Vancouver’s only had one season in the league, while Valour are heading into year six as a club.
But if they’re to do that, it’s going to take quite the turnaround from head coach Phil Dos Santos, as he tries to turn around a group that finished last in 2023 and aren’t favoured by many to do much better than that in 2024.
To do that, however, they’ve made some intriguing signings, bringing in a whole host of names with CPL experience, including Tass Mourdoukoutas, Roberto Alarcón, Zachary Sukunda, Noah Verhoeven, Abdul Binate and Shaan Hundal.
In particular, Hundal’s a big signing given that Valour struggled to score last year, with no one finding the net more than four times, as they ended up underperforming their Expected Goals (xG) by over seven goals. Given that Hundal found the net six times on Vancouver, finishing as their co-leading scorer despite not getting much of a run in the second half of the season, he could thrive in this Valour set-up.
And if he does that, there’s some reason for optimism elsewhere in the lineup. The defence should be solid, as Dos Santos-coached teams always are, especially as he gets to lean on players such as new goalkeeper signing Jonathan Viscosi, Abdou Samaké, Alarcón and Samaké in a new-look backline, while his midfield options of Dante Campbell, Marcello Polisi, Raphael Ohin, Juan Pablo Sánchez and Verhoeven can go up against any in the league.
So as long as they’re more solid defensively than they were last year, and Hundal scores like he did at the start of 2023 for Vancouver, those are two major areas of growth that could push Valour forward.
But either way, this Valour team will have to embrace being underdogs, and there’s nothing wrong with that. Having signed a bunch of players who were cast aside from teams around the CPL, they’ll need to have the hunger to prove to their old teams that they made a mistake, allowing them to surprise and break their playoff drought.
If not, it could be another long season in Winnipeg, much like the five before it.
Predicted Finish: 8th
