WHAT WE LEARNED: How can the CanMNT recover from loss to Guatemala in Gold Cup QFs?
It was a tough reality check for the CanMNT.
What was supposed to be a breakout 2025 Gold Cup ended with what has unfortunately become a familiar sight for this Canadian team - a heartbreaking defeat in a knockout game.
For the fourth time in the last five Gold Cups, Canada has been eliminated in the quarter-finals, as they fell 1-1 (6-5 on penalties) to Guatemala on Sunday.
As a result, their major trophy drought lives on, having last lifted silverware at the 2000 Gold Cup, 25 long years ago, with their loss in the 2023 Concacaf Nations League final so far remaining the closest they’ve come since - it’s the lone final appearance they’ve had since that Gold Cup triumph, after all.
Armed with a strong team and a group hungry to snap that drought, it seemed like this year was as good a chance as any for this Canadian team to finally lift some silverware and change that narrative, however. Instead, a familiar exit was once again on the cards, leaving them with more questions than answers at a crucial period, with the 2026 World Cup now less than a year away.
"In tournament football, there's no second chances. That's something we need to wake up to."
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 30, 2025
Derek Cornelius reacts to the #CanMNT's exit from the 2025 Concacaf Gold Cup pic.twitter.com/yRaGLMqmqX
With Canada’s position as a co-host for that tournament, they’ve got a real opportunity to make some noise next summer, which could be a transformative moment for the sport in this country.
They can still have a big showing next year, as it’s important to remember that the sky hasn’t fallen despite this defeat - at the same time, it feels like Canada has missed out on a massive opportunity to take a big step forward. That’s huge, as the next while is going to pass by quickly, especially now that Canada will have no more competitive games to play before the start of the World Cup.
The good news, of course, is that Canada can still learn from this defeat. Yet, given that they remain stuck at a familiar hurdle, which is their ability to win big games (a hurdle they could’ve crossed with a Gold Cup victory), the path towards 2026 success just got that much harder.
All of that to say, the next 12 months just got all that much more interesting. For better or for worse.
Before looking too far ahead, here’s what we learned from Canada’s early Gold Cup elimination.
Is Canada’s aggression becoming their own enemy in big games?
It’s no secret how Canada wants to play under Jesse Marsch - aggressively, and on the front foot.
When possible, they want to impose themselves in games, be it through their press, in duels or on the attack.
Given the profile of this team, that style has proven to be a good fit, too, leading to some impressive performances in games when it’s all clicked for them. Take their opener at this Gold Cup, for example, as they beat Honduras 6-0 in one of their best performances under Marsch - doing so against a team that has since gone on to reach the semi-finals of this same tournament, for context.
On the flipside, while Canada have had some excellent performances under Marsch, they’ve also had some tough showings, such as this defeat to Guatemala. That’s not the end of the world, as teams are allowed to have off-nights - it’s impossible to find any side that can operate at their best in every match, at any level - but it has been worrying to see the nature of those performances, especially when they’ve come in these bigger matches.
In particular, what continues to stand out is that Canada can become a bit of their own enemy in those bigger matches, as what can work so well for them when they’re clicking can often become what sinks them when things aren’t going as well.
Take this Guatemala defeat as an example. After a strong first 45 minutes, one that saw them take a 1-0 lead and seem likely to cruise to victory, they then pushed their own backs against the wall in first-half stoppage time.
There, they picked up a red card, as Jacob Shaffelburg earned his second yellow card for a reckless tackle, which put Canada down a player. Given that Canada haven’t had a red card since June of 2022, that loomed large, as they’ve done an excellent job of staying quite disciplined over the years despite how aggressively they typically play, showing why it was so frustrating to see that change at a pivotal moment.
RED CARD 🟥
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 29, 2025
Jacob Shaffelburg heads to the locker room after picking up a second yellow just before half-time 😳#CanMNT 🇨🇦 up 1-0 vs. Guatemala 🇬🇹 at the break pic.twitter.com/fYZYntrqV7
At the same time, despite the sending off, Canada were still in a good position to win. Up a goal, with 45 minutes to go, all they had to do was sit back, manage the game, and there was still a strong chance they would triumph in this game - heck, they could’ve potentially done so while scoring another goal.
Given that they still pushed Guatemala in the second half, they still had every opportunity to get something out of this game, but didn’t.
Yet, that’s where their aggression again might’ve worked against them. Despite being down a player, Canada didn’t change their style, and while that worked for them in the first 20 minutes of the second half, in which they went toe-to-toe with Guatemala, that cost them in the end.
All of a sudden, Guatemala were able to find an equalizer in the 69th minute through Rubio Rubin Méndez, capitalizing on some aggressive defending from Canada, and that completely changed the game.
GOAL 🇬🇹
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 29, 2025
Guatemala equalize 1-1 vs. #CanMNT as Rubio Rubin beats Derek Cornelius to the header and buries it past DSC 🎯
🔴 Watch LIVE on OneSoccer & TSN pic.twitter.com/0MHJFjhhnF
Having run out of gas a bit before the goal, Canada had no response, leaving them to scrape towards penalties instead of pushing back and offering some resistance, as they generated just one shot worth 0.04 xG while down a player.
Given that they’d kept Guatemala to just 0.12 xG on four shots before Rubin Méndez’s equalizer, before allowing four shots worth 0.52 xG afterwards (including the goal), further shows that Canada ran out of steam in the end - at both ends of the pitch.
Seeing that, however, leaves the question - what could Canada have done had they played a bit more conservatively, helping them conserve their legs? Certainly, it feels like they could’ve been able to grind out a 1-0 victory, given their experience as a team, which could’ve perhaps even opened the door for some late counter-attacks.
At the same time, this has been the story for Canada in bigger games as of late - their aggression can play against them.
Just look at some of the big games they’ve played over the last 18 months.
For example, there was their loss to Mexico in the Concacaf Nations League semi-finals in March of this year. There, they lost 2-0, with the first goal they conceded coming inside less than a minute after they were too eager to take a throw-in deep inside their own half, before the second goal came off a free kick from a foul they gave up in the middle of the park.
Then, how about their loss to Argentina in the Copa América semi-finals last summer? There, they put in a great performance against the defending World Cup champions and eventual back-to-back Copa winners, one they can be very proud of, but they’ll rue the opening goal they conceded, as they were punished for being too aggressive in pressing their opponents.
Heck, there’s also the game before that, too, in which Canada beat Venezuela on penalties in the quarter-finals after a 1-1 draw - they could’ve avoided penalties if not for goalkeeper Maxime Crépeau being caught well off his line by Salomón Róndon, who scored a spectacular goal to from the halfway line to send the game to spot kicks after Canada had taken a 1-0 lead in the first half.
What that shows, however, is the line Canada will have to toe going forward. No doubt, their aggressive style of play has continued to be an asset - after all, this is still a team that has lost just four times under Jesse Marsch, with those losses coming to #1 ranked Argentina (twice), #6 ranked Netherlands, and #17 ranked Mexico, showing that they’re still in a good position.
At the same time, they’ll feel they could’ve gotten more out of a few big matches where their aggression might’ve played against them, and this result was the latest one where that was the case, showing that they’ll have to find a way to strike a balance between aggression and pragmatism going forward.
“I feel bad for the group, because I know how bad they wanted it,” Marsch said after the game. “But it's important for us to learn from a loss like this, because I think we lost because we beat ourselves, and we can't do that in important matches, and we certainly can't do that next summer.”
What to make of in-game management? ![Soccer: Concacaf Gold Cup-Quarterfinal-Guatemala at Canada]()
Of course, when speaking about Canada’s second half, it’s worth talking about the changes that they made, as they could’ve also tweaked their set-up once they went down a player.
Instead of switching to a 4-4-1, 4-3-2 or a 5-4-1, sitting back in more of a defensive block with an emphasis on playing on the counter-attack, Canada continued to play aggressively in a 4-2-3, as they pushed high up the pitch and tried to keep pressing while using a high line defensively.
To be fair, as mentioned earlier, that approach worked for 20 or so minutes, so it’s not as if it was the wrong choice from Canada, in isolation.
Once it was clear they were starting to get tired, however, Canada could’ve still adjusted and started to sit back, but they didn’t. Not only that, but they continued to make aggressive tactical decisions, too, as their first substitution of the game was to bring in striker Daniel Jebbison in the 58th minute, instead of perhaps turning to a midfielder or defender to try and settle the match - something they also could’ve done at half time.
In particular, that Jebbison substitution looms quite large as Canada was still up 1-0 at that moment, so it would’ve made a lot of sense for them to try and make a bit more of a cautious change, instead of a forward who ended up having just 20 touches (and none in Guatemala’s box) the rest of the game.
Of course, once Guatemala tied the game at 1-1, Canada could’ve also then switched gears and tried to get some control back of the game, but they instead made two more aggressive substitutions, with striker Cyle Larin entering in the 71st minute before Promise David came on in the 90th minute. Granted, they also brought in a midfielder in the 71st minute in Nathan Saliba, helping them calm the game a little bit, but they still finished the game with three strikers on the pitch, which felt strange to see given that they were down a player.
Yet, that leads to a big question that many will have about this Canadian side after this tournament - can they manage games better?
"I'm disappointed. It's a game we had in our hands... and it fell apart."#CanMNT 🇨🇦 captain Jonathan David reflects on his team's Gold Cup exit 🎙️ pic.twitter.com/srXSsp78qZ
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 30, 2025
For example, losing their lead to Guatemala stings on its own, but stings doubly because Canada already had a game in this tournament where they suffered a similar fate, as they drew Curaçao 1-1 in their second group stage game despite leading that match from early on until second-half stoppage time.
Much like in that game, however, Canada didn’t adjust their set-up while up a goal, leading to a defensive breakdown on a sequence where they were far too aggressive, before interestingly also finishing that game with three strikers on the pitch, much like they did in this match. When looking back, the similarities are uncanny.
Plus, returning to this Guatemala game, not only did Canada not change their approach despite the red card, but they only used four of their five available substitutes, too, despite having several players who seemed to run out of gas.
Not only that, but they only used that fourth substitution after Jonathan David literally ran himself into the ground, as he had to come off with a cramp, hence the 90th-minute insertion of Promise David - could he not have come into the match earlier, along with the fifth substitution Canada didn’t use? Heck, Canada could’ve even used that fifth substitution to insert another penalty taker like Ismaël Koné, protecting 19-year-old Luc De Fougerolles from having to take and miss his second penalty in a matter of weeks.
It's over. 💔#CanMNT pic.twitter.com/372mLC9Qj6
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 29, 2025
For a team down a player, those substitutions could’ve made a big difference, especially had they come earlier in the game with how aggressively Canada wanted to play - at the very least, it could’ve bought them some more time to keep playing their way.
Instead, they were reluctant to bring in fresh legs, and it feels like that cost them in the end.
Because of that, look for Canada to try and adjust their in-game management going forward. As mentioned earlier, Canada wants to play aggressively and doesn’t like to change that, but that shouldn’t mean that it should prohibit them from tweaking their approach circumstantially - sometimes, there’s no problem with embracing a pragmatic approach in certain moments.
Certainly, defending a lead while down a player felt like one of those circumstances, but Canada chose not to, and now they’ll be left to wonder if they could’ve done more to manage this game, one they let slip away from them.
Yet, that ties into a fascinating question facing this team going forward. There was a lot of dialogue this tournament about whether Canada has a plan B when plan A doesn’t work, which Marsch has said his team has - also noting his team has all the way down to plan ZZ.
If that’s the case, however, it shows that just having plans B to ZZ isn’t enough - you’ve got to be able to execute them, especially in games when defending a lead.
In this game, Canada were both too hesitant to switch to any of those different plans, or at least didn’t execute them as well as they would’ve liked, leaving many to wonder if they could’ve managed the game better.
Does this impact World Cup aspirations?
Of course, this defeat could prove to be a footnote in Canada’s overall journey, because the main goal for them going forward is to do well at the 2026 World Cup. Given that they’re about to host games and have never won a World Cup match in two previous appearances at that tournament, that’s only natural to stay fixated on that goal.
They make a run to the Round of 16 or quarter-finals of next summer’s tournament, and this defeat will quickly be forgotten - in fact, it could be seen as something that potentially sparked that journey, too.
At the same time, it’s important to be very clear and not mince any words - this Gold Cup elimination represents a failure for Canada. On paper, this team was supposed to be one of the tournament favourites, so to lose in the quarter-finals to a team ranked ninth in all of Concacaf (and 106th in the world) looms large.
Not only that, but the impact of this defeat is two-fold - not only did this add to an unfortunate list of big games in which Canada has come up short, but denied them the chance to play in (and win) more big games to try and change that same narrative, after missing out on a chance to reach a Nations League final a few months ago.
That’s huge, because that’s genuinely one of the last big steps this team has to take to hit its final form - they need to prove that they can go out and win these big matches, which they’ll need to do at the World Cup if they’re to have any success.
The best way to do that within Concacaf is to win a trophy, and they missed their last two chances to do that before the World Cup in their Nations League and Gold Cup eliminations this year.
The #CanMNT has everything they need to be successful according to @AlexGangueRuzic, but they still have to prove that they can win big games ahead of the World Cup ⚽ pic.twitter.com/OlnlTcTSmu
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) June 30, 2025
Plus, Canada now has just two wins vs. top 30 opposition in competitive games since 2020 - wins vs. the US and Mexico in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, which also looms large ahead of next year. Not only that, but they’ve now also come up short in some games where they were favourites to win, too, such as this Gold Cup quarter-final vs. 106th-ranked Guatemala and their 2023-2024 Nations League quarter-final vs. 63rd-ranked Jamaica, showing that they’ve also just struggled in big games, period.
In fact, since 2020, they’ve picked up just four positive results in single-elimination games - a 1-0 win vs. Costa Rica in the 2021 Gold Cup quarter-finals, a 2-0 win vs. Panama in the 2022-2023 Nations League semi-finals, a 2-0 win vs. Trinidad & Tobago in the Copa América play-in qualifier, and a 1-1 draw (4-3 win on penalties) vs. Venezuela at the 2024 Copa América, as they’ve otherwise fallen short in the seven other single-elimination matches they’ve played - along with their three losses at the 2022 World Cup, that illustrates some of their struggles in big matches.
Had they beaten Mexico at this year’s Nations League or made a run to the Gold Cup final, for example, they could’ve both notched a couple of key top 30 victories in competitive matches, while earning a couple of statement single-elimination wins at the same time. Then, for good measure, had they won either of those two competitions, they could’ve also learned some valuable lessons about navigating tournaments, too, which could be worth just as much as a top 30 victory - just look at how much they grew from their run to the semi-finals at last year’s Copa América.
Now, they’ll get the chance to play several top 30 opponents over the next year, as they’re starting to build an impressive roster of upcoming friendlies between the tests that await with Romania, Wales and Colombia in the fall, with more to come after that - those will offer good tests for Canada, even if they’re only exhibition matches.
The good news? There is still plenty to learn from those friendlies, too. For example, Canada can use those games to practice some of the things that let them down in this tournament, such as how they adjust in games and how they tweak their system.
From there, they can start to figure out what their best lineup is going forward; lost in the shuffle of this tournament will be that the stock of a couple of promising youngsters has improved significantly, adding more competition to an already deep squad.
Plus, Canada can further figure out how to best compete against top 30 teams, as they did in a 0-0 draw vs. France, a 2-1 win vs. the US and a 0-0 draw vs. Mexico in friendlies last year, something they’ll want to continue vs. 14th-ranked Colombia and 29th-ranked Wales, in particular.
Unfortunately, what they can’t learn in those friendlies is how they’ll respond in their next competitive match against a top 30 team, of which they’ll certainly have a few at next summer’s World Cup, and that’s why this Guatemala defeat looms so large given the missed opportunity to take 16th-ranked US in a semi-final and potentially 17th-ranked Mexico in a final.
What that does, however, is just raise the stakes of the preparation time that awaits them, as they must make the most of the next 12 months and not waste a single moment from there, ensuring that they’re as prepared as possible for next summer. They do that, and perhaps they can figure out how to win the big games on the fly - certainly, they’ll have no choice but to try and follow that blueprint after this early elimination from the Gold Cup.
“We've got to learn how to win the biggest moments, right? We've made a lot of progress since I've been the national team head coach,” Marsch said. “I really like this group, and I really believe in them, but we have to find a way now to make sure that we're at our best in the toughest games and in the toughest moments. We’re going to figure that out, I promise you we will learn from this, and we will move forward.”
