Who has the biggest edge between Forge FC and Cavalry FC in the race for the CPL Shield?
It’s been a busy week at the top of the Canadian Premier League table, as CPL Shield contenders Forge and Cavalry have traded places a couple of times in just this last week alone.
Heading into their matchup at ATCO Field on August 15th, Forge held the advantage, as the two-time defending CPL Shield champions have for most of the season. It wasn’t a huge advantage, as they were just one point ahead of Cavalry in first place, but given that they had a game in hand, it certainly felt significant.
Yet, that advantage quickly disappeared, as Cavalry managed to pick up a dramatic 2-1 comeback win thanks to a winner from Owen Antoniuk, which allowed them to leapfrog Forge into first place in the table.
Unfortunately for Cavalry, their time at the top of the table was short-lived. With Forge playing in midweek, they finally got to take advantage of that game in hand, and they made the most of it, beating FC Supra du Québec 3-2 with a late goal to regain their one-point advantage at the top of the table.
The top of the #CPLsoccer table is an absolute rollercoaster 🎢
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 20, 2026
Forge FC of Hamilton & Cavalry FC of Calgary swap places once again, midweek 👀 pic.twitter.com/NR7pxMvZMk
Now, though, with both teams on equal footing in terms of games played, it feels like the CPL Shield race is about to heat up in a big way. With just 11 games remaining for each team, the temperature has been raised for those last matches - and one can only imagine that the final regular-season meeting between the two teams, which comes on September 19th in Calgary, will prove to be a big one.
Tommy Wheeldon Jr. on Cavalry FC beating Forge FC to move to top of the #CPLsoccer table 🔝
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 18, 2026
"We'd be naive enough to think that they won't come back with vengeance next time we face them... But what we've done is reminded them, and the league, who we are." pic.twitter.com/xuqjynbqX8
For what it’s worth, it’s important to note that the race for the CPL Shield isn’t fully closed off to the rest of the league quite yet. It’s hard to imagine anyone not currently in a playoff spot closing the significant gap that Forge and Cavalry have created between themselves and the non-playoff sides - fifth-place Supra are 20 points behind Forge and 19 points behind Cavalry - but third-place Atlético Ottawa and fourth-place Vancouver FC still have a shout at finishing first, with Ottawa sitting eight points behind Forge and seven points behind Cavalry, and Vancouver 11 points behind Forge and 10 points behind Cavalry.
Forge and Cavalry each have a game in hand on Ottawa and Vancouver, showing that it’ll be a tall task for either team to overtake them, but Ottawa will play Cavalry twice and Forge twice in their last 10 matches, while Vancouver still has two matches against Cavalry and one against Forge, which could help them narrow the gap if they win those matches. That’s not insignificant, as Ottawa and Vancouver are the only teams who aren’t Forge or Cavalry to beat those two sides this season - of the five combined losses Forge and Cavalry have on their records, Vancouver is responsible for two of them, and Ottawa one of them (Forge and Cavalry have beaten each other once apiece).
At the same time, the big challenge for Vancouver and Ottawa arguably won’t be in finding a way to beat Forge and Cavalry in those head-to-head matches, but instead ensuring they don’t drop too many points in their other games.
It might’ve gotten lost in the shuffle of that earlier statistic, but with Forge and Cavalry’s only losses coming against each other or fellow playoff teams Ottawa and Vancouver, that means that Forge and Cavalry are yet to lose against a non-playoff team this year - by comparison, Vancouver have lost three games to non-playoff teams, and Ottawa two games.
That might not seem like much, but that’s nine points lost for Vancouver and six points lost for Ottawa, which is the difference between them being neck-and-neck with Forge and Cavalry, and where they currently are in the table.
What that shows, though, is why the race for the CPL Shield has seemingly come down to a race between Cavalry and Forge, as their consistency from match to match has been unparalleled.
GOAL 🛠️🛠️🛠️
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 20, 2026
Aghilas Sadek puts Forge back in front with a fantastic strike to the bottom left corner 🔥
🔴 Watch #CPLSoccer on OneSoccer & TVA Sports 2 pic.twitter.com/PAEjbNxjJd
When you want to finish atop the table, that sort of consistency goes a long way, as the best teams don’t just find a way to beat the other best teams, but they find a way to avoid dropping points against teams they shouldn’t.
Therefore, the big thing to watch with Ottawa and Vancouver might be the playoffs themselves, where their track record against Forge and Cavalry can start to come into play more - especially if they can find a way to pick up another victory or two against the top two sides before the end of the regular season.
In the playoffs, it becomes a battle of wits instead of a war of attrition, which is a whole different situation altogether.
To return to Forge and Cavalry, however, what are some things to watch out for in this last stretch of the season, as they continue their push for the CPL Shield? 
Firstly, scheduling-wise, Cavalry play six of their last 11 games at home, including that head-to-head clash against Forge, which is a key advantage given that they’ve won six and drawn two of their eight home games so far in league play. Forge, meanwhile, will also play six of their last 11 at home, but they’ll rue the fact that none of those home games are against Cavalry, given that they’ve picked up six wins and one draw in their eight home games.
Plus, Forge does have a busier schedule given that they’re into the semi-finals of the Canadian Championship, where they’re facing Supra in a two-legged tie. Given the importance of that tournament, Forge will be expected to go all out to try and become the first CPL team to win that competition, which might distract them from their quest to win that third straight CPL Shield (especially if they reach the final of the Canadian Championship).
Otherwise, attacking-wise, Cavalry does have a huge edge, which could be worth noting. Not only do they lead the league in goals with 33, but they’ve got an xG of 33.65 and a non-penalty xG of 31.28, which is first in the league by a wide margin. Forge, to their credit, are third in the league in goals with 27, but are fifth in the CPL in xG with 24.71 and fourth in non-penalty xG with 21.55.
GOAL🐎 🐎
— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) August 15, 2026
It's Owen Antoniuk with another KEY late goal for Cavalry, as he curves a beautiful strike into the top corner to put his side up 2-1 against Forge FC
🔴 Watch #CPLSoccer LIVE on OneSoccer and TSN pic.twitter.com/zREHAUU1hx
Then, defensively, Cavalry have also done quite well, as they lead the league in goals conceded with 10, while Forge sit second with 13 (third-place Vancouver has conceded 21 goals, for context). Once again, in terms of the advanced metrics, Cavalry has a slight edge, as they’ve conceded just 12.46 xG, while Forge have conceded 18.09 xG, although this category is much closer.
And, while you could look at those numbers and suggest that both teams could be due for a bit of a defensive regression, you have to remember that both teams have the current frontrunners for the goalkeeper of the year award backstopping them, making those figures look a bit more sustainable.
Yet, that’s another reason why both teams will feel confident in their chances of winning - the quality in their squads. It’s an imperfect measure, but when you look at the top CPL players by FotMob rating, 10 of the top 14 players in the league play for Forge and Cavalry (five for each team, for those counting), which gives an idea of the level of performances both teams have been getting from their individual players on a game-to-game basis.
But, once again, that shows why both are vying for the CPL Shield, as they’re complete teams from top to bottom. They’re well-coached, led by the experienced Bobby Smyrniotis with Forge and Tommy Wheeldon Jr with Cavalry, who have created tactically flexible teams, and are stocked with talent across their roster.
There’s a reason why these teams are consistently in the race for the CPL Shield and the North Star Cup, and why that’s continued this year (and expected to continue in the playoffs).
For now, though, to keep focus on the Shield, the numbers here suggest that Cavalry have a slight edge in that race, for now, due to their numbers and more favourable schedule - although that head-to-head matchup in September could end up changing everything, so keep an eye on that one when it happens - especially if these sides don’t slip up over the next few weeks.
